Oct 28, 2025, 09:04 AM ET

Atlanta United players bumped chests. The coaching staff linked arms. Team executives hugged. Why shouldn't they celebrate? They'd just bounced Inter Miami CF and Lionel Messi from the 2024 MLS postseason, pulling off one of the biggest playoff upsets in American sports history.

It was a huge upset, right? Right?

Whether you find it maddening or irresistible, MLS's fine margins remain a key part of the league. Even against the best of the best, like last year's Miami team that set a single-season points record, struggling teams still have a chance to win thanks to closely controlled roster rules designed to maintain parity.

Every team that finds itself in the first round of this year's MLS postseason should view itself as an MLS Cup contender. Conversely, no team should think of itself as anything close to invincible.

Here's why each team will -- and won't -- win MLS Cup.

Austin FC

Supporters' Shield standings: 15th
Games played in 2025: 41
Regular season goal differential: -8
Regular season expected goal differential: -7.75

Why they will win MLS Cup: Their defense can fuel a run. Austin's biggest strength lies in its defense, which finished tied for 10th in the league based on...